International Linkages and Macroeconomic News Effects on Interest Rate Volatility – Australia and the US

We examine international linkages between daily time series of US and Australian 3 month Treasury Bills and 10 year Government Bonds from 1987-95, paying particular attention to the effects of macroeconomic announcements in both countries. The 2 country’s interest rate data are modeled by a bivariate EGARCH formulation. The results suggest that market participants believed the Reserve Bank of Australia targeted the CPI, while the Federal Reserve targeted economic activity. Monetary policy announcements had significant effects on interest rates, as well as on their volatility in the short-term. US macroeconomic activity announcements significantly moved Australian interest rates, particularly at the short end. Australian interest rates moved significantly in response to the previous day’s US interest rate shocks. The conditional volatility of the Australian interest rate changes was also significantly influenced by lagged US interest rate shocks, as well as by surprises in US macroeconomic announcements. Some macroeconomic news announcements raised conditional volatilities, while others reduced them. Overall there was a remarkable and complex array of linkages between the 2 countries. JEL Classification: E44, G14, G15